What Does Netanyahu Think He Is Doing?
What Does Netanyahu Think He Is Doing?
Michael Walzer: What Does Netanyahu Think He Is Doing?
I have been coming to Israel every year for the past thirty years, and I spend most of my time here talking about politics. But I don?t understand what?s been going on this past week, in Jerusalem and in Washington, beginning with Obama?s big speech. It wasn?t the reference to the 1967 borders that was new in this speech but rather the proposal to deal now with borders and security and postpone all questions about Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem. This makes sense to Israeli leftists, my friends here, who think that it?s to Israel?s advantage to get out of the territories?indeed, that withdrawal is an urgent necessity, and more so for the Jews than for the Arabs. But it makes no sense to Netanyahu and his allies, for whom withdrawal is the great concession, which they are probably not ready to make, and which they could not possibly make unless it brought a definitive end to the conflict?which means that the Palestinians would have to give up the right of return at the same time as Israel agreed to withdraw from the West Bank. But there is no prospect of that and, unfortunately, Obama is dealing with Israeli rightists, not leftists, so he should have expected the reception his proposals got.
Still, Netanyahu could have responded in a different way. He could have welcomed Obama?s rejection of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood, his promise that Israel would not be isolated at the UN, his insistence that Hamas recognize Israel and renounce terrorism, his clear statement that a future Palestine would be demilitarized, and his call for the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state?and then simply acknowledged that there were still disagreements, that needed to be worked out, about borders and settlements and about the order in which the hardest issues would be addressed.
Why did he focus on the line about ?67 and pick a fight? There is a simple answer to that question: he isn?t interested in the peace process; he doesn?t believe that there is a peace process; he is thinking only of his political position at home. His speech to Congress was his reelection platform.
But this can?t be the whole story. I don?t have much respect for Netanyahu; still, he is the leader of his country, and he must have some vision of Israel?s future and not only of his own future. What does he think about Israel?s drift toward pariah status in the world, about the growing strength of boycott movements in many countries, about the likelihood that the UN General Assembly will recognize Palestinian statehood (as it recognized Israel?s many years ago), and about the possibility of large-scale and peaceful Palestinian protests?something Israel has never had to deal with before? His speech addressed none of this. It is being described as a stand-pat speech, but Netanyahu sounded to me like a man walking with his eyes closed toward disaster. He must know that standing ovations in Washington offer little protection to the people he claims to represent. I don?t understand what he thinks he is doing.
Palestinian leaders would be happy to accept an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, but they are in no way ready to end the conflict; no Palestinian leader has even hinted at a willingness to give up the right of return. None of them are strong enough to do that, but I suspect that none of them want to do that. Their strategic goal is what I am afraid it has always been: the creation of a Palestinian state alongside a Jewish state that they don?t recognize and with which they are not reconciled. But tactically they are newly inventive. They worked backward: their first resort was violence and terror; their last resort is peaceful protest. Had they reversed the order, they would have a state by now. There have been small nonviolent protests in the past, and these protests continue today in villages along the Wall, but they have been and still are marginal to the Palestinian struggle, never endorsed by Fatah or the PLO?and certainly not by Hamas. Now Israel faces the prospect of something radically new. How can it resist masses of men and women, children too, just walking across the ceasefire lines?
Actually, if the Palestinians are smart, as they are these days, they won?t walk across the lines, for that raises the specter of return, and the right of return doesn?t (yet) have sufficient international support. Come September, after the UN recognizes their state, they will march inside the 1967 lines, thousands of them?from Nablus, say, into the nearby settlements and army bases, asserting their own sovereignty and territorial integrity. And what will Israel do then? Many Israeli rightists would, almost certainly, prefer a new terrorist campaign, which would put the Palestinians once again in the wrong. That is certainly possible, but it is, suddenly, less likely than peaceful protest.
Obama was trying to help Netanyahu avoid or postpone the UN vote; he meant to give Israel the chance to make Palestinian statehood a joint Israeli-Palestinian project. Whatever the prospects for success, getting serious negotiations on Israel?s borders started is very important, and Netanyahu?s rejectionism seems crazy to me?not unexpected, but still crazy. I hope that someone in the White House has an idea about what to do next.
