The Other Election

The Other Election

Yascha Mounk: The Forgotten Elections in Germany

The UK election campaign was strangely captivating. An unloved prime minister, plodding along from mishap to catastrophe, slowly acquired the melancholic gravitas of a tragic hero. Meanwhile, the posh leader of the opposition did his unconvincing best to impersonate an ordinary bloke. There even was the exaggerated but exhilarating promise of catharsis if the Liberal Democrats had emerged as a truly progressive force and broken with the centrism of British politics.

It is little wonder, then, that no one has been paying attention to the upcoming elections in the German state of Nordrhein-Westfalen. Yet, these little-noticed regional elections might have nearly as big an impact on the political landscape in Europe.

Opinion polls predict that the governing coalition of Christian Democrats and Liberals–the same coalition that governs in Berlin?is headed for defeat. This would be a remarkable victory for Germany?s left. After the Social Democrats? near eclipse at national elections last fall, they would have re-conquered the country?s most populous state. Long-lost support in traditional strongholds like this heavily industrial region in Germany?s North-West would suddenly seem recoverable. The party?s future would look a lot less bleak.

A victory for the left would also bring the legislative program pursued by Angela Merkel?s national government to a screeching halt. Over the next years, Merkel and her coalition partners are hoping to introduce a range of economically regressive reforms, from large tax cuts for the wealthy to a de-coupling of health premiums from wages. But such reforms have to be approved by the country?s federal upper house, the Bundesrat. If Merkel loses Nordrhein-Westfalen, she also loses her majority in the Bundesrat–henceforth, her government would need the opposition?s assent for every major piece of legislation.

Last, as is increasingly the case in German elections, voters might not give a clear mandate to either one of the two traditional coalitions on the left and the right when they go to the polls this Sunday. It is unlikely that Christian Democrats and Liberals will achieve an outright majority. But it is equally unlikely that Social Democrats and Greens will be able to govern on their own.

Party leaders, then, might want to risk one of two unaccustomed solutions. First, the Greens might agree to govern with their erstwhile archenemies, the Christian Democrats. Second, Social Democrats and Greens might agree to govern with the more radical, and sometimes irresponsible, Left Party. Given the size of Nordrhein-Westfalen, either experiment would be seen as a dry run for a similar coalition at the national level. It might well foreshadow the next decades of German politics.