?Red? Ed and the Labour Leadership
?Red? Ed and the Labour Leadership
Paul Thompson: ?Red? Ed and the Labour Leadership
During the weekend I bumped into an old comrade of mine with whom I?d shared many battles within Labour against the Right and far Left. When I said that the speech of the new Labour leader, Ed Miliband, was the first I?ve ever listened to and agreed (mostly) with, she replied, ?That?s what worries me.? I don?t think she was joking either. That echoes the line taken by most of the media and many of David Miliband?s supporters: that electing ?Red? Ed will lead to electoral defeat, with the party relegated to its heartlands and ideological comfort zones.
Ed Miliband is a mainstream social democrat a few notches to the left of his brother David and New Labour. The projected and exaggerated difference between them is partly an inevitable result of intra-party competitive differentiation. David Miliband ran or allowed himself to be portrayed as the continuity candidate?the heir to Blair and keeper of the New Labour flame. This is not an accurate reflection of his politics, but he and his team did not do enough to counter it. Indeed, as the heavyweight endorsements flowed in, they largely acquiesced in the view of both the Blairite and actual establishment that the only acceptable Labour leader is one who won?t change anything and whose main opponent is always his own party. In a particularly absurd article and leader in the Times, (Tory-supporting) Daniel Finkelstein argued that the new leader would fail because you can?t move the center ground of politics?it is where it is and you can only adapt to it. Good thing he wasn?t advising Margaret Thatcher.
In contrast, Ed ran as the change candidate you could realistically vote for. Though a key player in recent governments, he declared New Labour dead, with particular policies such as those on Iraq, civil liberties, and regulation of the financial sector deserving to be buried. Ed developed a radical and optimistic (though admittedly vaguer) vision of the future. He cleverly and correctly turned the favorite Blairite theme of modernization around, arguing that while the world was changing all around us, New Labour had become a prisoner of its own certainties.
If someone with his kind of politics is unelectable, I think I?d give up and put my energies into single issue campaigning. Party political activity would be a form of alienated labor. Fortunately as recent polling shows (ironically commissioned by Tory finance chief, Lord Ashcroft), all this is sensible and strategic politics.
Voters want Labour to apologize on Iraq and other issues and then move on. Even on the predicted horror option, 31 percent of swing voters would be more likely to support Labour if it ?moved to the left? (with 32 percent less likely). With respect to particular policies:
-77 percent back a 50 percent rate of income tax on earnings over £100,000
-63 percent want to scrap Trident (the UK nuclear weapons program)
-84 percent support increasing the minimum wage to more than £7/hour
-81 percent support a High Pay Commission to restrict high salaries in the private sector
-77 percent think that people with higher incomes should have to pay significantly more taxes to minimize cuts in the public sector
-72 percent think that government should try to make society more equal, even if this means reducing living standards for those at the top
Politics is, of course, more than a collection of loosely related policies or attitudes to them. For a start, it is embodied, and there is no guarantee that this particular personification of such politics is electable. Ed is something of an unknown quantity; whether he has the political and personal skills to survive and prosper in the media spotlight, Prime Minister?s Question Time, and future leader debates remains to be seen. Though young and a bit geeky, the early signs are promising, but the truth is that it?s a gamble.
In addition, politics crucially depends on an overall narrative. Ed Miliband has time to develop that but faces two immediate and substantial challenges. The first is to form an inclusive and effective leadership team in a context where only a minority of ex-ministers and MPs voted for him. After the leadership results were announced, ex-leader Neil Kinnock remarked that ?we have got our party back.? I know what he means, but ?we? haven?t. There are a number of resentful Blairites who could block the new direction Ed has mapped out. Some of them have marginalized themselves or can be marginalized. The more talented and open-minded should (indeed must, given the arithmetic of support) be brought into the tent. The elections for the Shadow Cabinet elections have created an opportunity to bury the historic Blair-Brown factionalism and promote people with a modernizing left perspective. Despite a few surprises among those who failed to make the cut, there is enough expertise and experience to take the Coalition on.
However, by choosing Alan Johnson as Shadow Chancellor and keeping big hitters Ed Balls and his wife Yvette Cooper out of economic portfolios, Miliband is taking a risk, particularly when the second challenge is to articulate a credible approach to the fiscal deficit. This has to start with a much more aggressive response to the endless Coalition statements that Labour ?caused? the crisis and/or left the public finances in a disastrous state. It didn?t, and they aren?t, as can be seen in the data collected by Will Straw.
Nevertheless, the deficit does require action. Labour must avoid being drawn into responding to each and every cut, focusing instead on a timetable and balance of cuts and tax increases that will minimize negative effects on growth and maximize fairness. If the new team can do this, the opportunities to win the argument are significant. In the poll cited above, 84 percent think that bankers are largely responsible for the current economic situation, and it is not fair that ordinary people have to suffer the consequences. Support for the spending cuts amongst women?who would bear the brunt of the effects?has dropped by 32 percent. While we won?t know the scale and scope of the cuts for a couple of weeks yet, the complete mess made by Cameron and Osborne of their first symbolic target?child benefits for higher rate taxpayers?is an indication of the difficulties ahead.
Again, however, it is the underlying political narrative that will count. Ed Miliband will be wise to expand on a theme of his campaign that directs attention to the ?squeezed middle,? who are not the version of the ?middle class? (actually the top 10-15 percent) so beloved of the Daily Mail and Telegraph, or the middle England Southern voters who seem to be the sole reference for Blairite politicians and commentators. The real squeezed middle have suffered stagnant or shrinking wages and declining job security, and cannot afford to opt out of deteriorating public services.
The Tory Party and their media attack dogs actually know the Red Ed tag is bullshit, but they are cynical and ruthless, and they smell blood. Whether Labour can recover and return to office after one term depends on how well he (Ed) and we find ways of countering it from the left.
