Giving Peace a Chance?

Giving Peace a Chance?

Jo-Ann Mort: Giving Peace a Chance?

There is simply no way to know if the new Obama Middle East peace initiative will succeed, but one thing we know for sure is that every other effort failed. And more important, the stakes this time could not be higher. With the spotlight on Iran?s nuclear capability, the frail health of Egypt?s President Mubarak, and Syria?s regime attempting extremely mild reform, the region is rife for change. The outcome of this latest round of peace talks will have a major impact on these events outside Israel/Palestine, just as these externalities will influence the situation on the ground for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

For this initiative to succeed where all others have failed, the two leaders?Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas?must show far more political muscle and stamina than they have historically shown in their long political careers. This is perhaps the biggest question mark of all: the uncertain leadership skills of those at the helm.

But the role of the United States is key?can President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton succeed where previous U.S. administrations have failed? When I was in Israel this past summer, most of my friends were bemoaning the present state of Israeli politics (the collapse of the parliamentary Left) with the refrain that ?Obama must save us from ourselves.? There is no doubt that without the complete engagement of the United States at the highest levels, this newest round of talks will not succeed. So far, it appears that the Obama administration is committed to this type of engagement.

There were a few transformative moments in the brief talks last week. One came after the first Hamas-claimed terrorist attack near Hebron, which killed four Jewish settlers. This could have been Bibi?s exit line, but instead he stayed, repeating the mantra of a leader whom he once scorned?Yitzhak Rabin?when he said that the terrorists could not dampen the peace negotiations. Another moment came at the end of the talks when Hillary Clinton gave a joint interview to Palestinian and Israeli TV reporters, side by side, a gesture laden with symbolism, but the type of symbolism that Israelis and Palestinians both need to see. Since the second Intifada and the construction of the separation wall, the two sides barely see each other, except as the occupied or occupier?settler, soldier, villager.

The major concern for Israel?s government remains Iran. It appears that, for the moment, the Israelis and the United States are on the same page regarding Iran; and the road to Tehran appears to lie not only in locking in sanctions against the Iranian leadership, but in solidifying the Arab world as best as possible against Iran. For that, there needs to be a dynamic peace process that actually leads to an end game.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad continues to deploy the cause of Palestine as a way to prop up his own oppressive regime, but that has worn thin now. Through two Septembers of his country?s ?Jerusalem Day,? (an annual event held on the last Friday of Ramadan, largely for political not religious ends) including one this past week, Iranians continued to be unimpressed by his transparent posturing.

Importantly, this time the Palestinian president would have none of this. For the first time that I can recall, Abbas made a public statement against the Iranian president?s cynical use of the Palestinian cause. A Palestinian Authority spokesman, Abu Rudainah, was quoted in Haaretz saying, ?President Mahmoud Abbas came to power through free, democratic and authentic elections supervised by more than 2,000 international and Arab monitors?We are the ones who fought for Palestine and Jerusalem?the Palestinian leadership did not oppress its people as did the Iranian leadership under Ahmadinejad.?

Privately, Palestinians?politicians and citizens alike?have grumbled angrily about the way the rest of the Arab world has used them as pawns. But in the case of Iran, the current Palestinian leadership is especially angry, not solely due to the way that the Iranian regime treats its own populace, but more to the point, how Ahmadinajad is arming Hamas in Gaza. Saeb Erakat, the Palestinian negotiator, told me several years ago, just after the Hamas takeover in Gaza, that the PA knew that support for Hamas was coming from Iran. It remains unlikely that Iranian support has stopped flowing to Hamas. (Not unimportantly, the majority of Palestinian Muslims are Sunnis, while the majority of Iranian Muslims are Shiites–as are the Iranian allies, Hezbollah–and are not looked upon kindly either by the Palestinian people or their leadership).

Moreover, the infrastructure that Abbas?s Palestinian Authority is putting into place has the makings of the most transparent and democratic regime in the Arab world. With Palestinian literacy at 92 percent (according to UNRWA), and a vibrant business class continuing to grow (West Bank growth this past year has surpassed 8 percent, according to the World Bank), the policies of PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad are one key ingredient that makes the Palestinian situation in the current peace talks completely different from previous days.

This past summer, while spending nearly six weeks in Israel, I traveled to Ramallah, Bethlehem, Nablus, and Jenin. I saw even more building and progress in Ramallah than I had on a visit earlier in the year. Jenin is open for business, with its reputation for exporting terrorists from a refugee camp having transformed into that of a peaceful town with a newly renovated cinema that opened this past spring.

I was taken to see the cinema with a Palestinian friend from Ramallah in a taxi, the owner of which came from a small village near Jenin. He stopped to get directions on the main street adjacent to the refugee camp from two teenage boys who live in the camp, one of whom jumped into the taxi with us to show us the route. As we drove away from Jenin, this taxi driver told us that he thought that Fayyad was doing a tremendous job?that there was hope in the West Bank, personal security and safety, and increasingly, jobs. Indeed, the Palestinians in the West Bank have a lot riding on the current peace talks?and for the first time ever, a nearly fully formed economy that is creating the backbone of a state for them.

There are still obstacles, not the least of which are Hamas and Gaza, and on the Israeli side, the settlements and the strength of the right wing against the weakness of the Left. But just maybe this time, with expectations low and a lack of pomp and circumstance, something can indeed happen. It will entail both sides lowering expectations, and it will especially mean that each side will have to be flexible and visionary. Each leader must jump across ravines that they have both been reluctant to traverse in the past.